StickItMedia is pleased to have guest blogger, Matthew Rusk, present his pre-U.S. Men’s Gymnastics Championships analysis of the major players vying to make the World Championships squad.  Matthew is a 16-year-old gymnastics enthusiast from Houston, TX and is the former editor of the blog Polished Gymnastics 101. As you will see, he has very impressive writing skills for such a young man.

He leaves no stone unturned as he diligently dishes out the details for the top 12 gymnasts he believes will be fighting it out for coveted spots on the World Team.  In his first post, he analyzes the chances for Jonathan Horton, Guillermo Alvarez, Raj Bhavsar, Joey Hagerty, Chris Brooks and Sasha Artemev.  In part two, which we’ll post later, he examines Steven Legendre, Danell Leyva, Tim McNeill, Daniel Ribeiro, Paul Ruggeri and David Sender.

By Matthew Rusk

August 12th, 2008. The U.S. men’s Olympic gymnastics team entered the National Indoor Stadium in Beijing, China, in front of a boisterous crowd, eager to observe whether the home Chinese team could reclaim its Olympic title. The Chinese would do so in convincing fashion, with their dominance bringing back memories of the Japanese and Soviet men’s teams of old. The Chinese men, with difficulty that defied human capability and execution that suggested perfection, made other teams concede defeat long before the competition ever began.

However, the U.S. men’s team was in no position for any such dominance. When Paul Hamm came back, an Olympic team medal appeared to be a realistic thought, but from his hand injury to his withdrawal to his twin brother’s withdrawal, a medal of any color seemed unlikely. However, in the Olympics, athletes have a choice of whether amazing things can happen to them, and on that Beijing morning in front of some 18,000 fans and billions watching around the world, the U.S. team chose exactly that.

Led by Jonathan Horton, the American men stuck landing after landing, hitting routine after routine, but  trouble aroused during the pommel horse rotation.  Alexander Artemev, on the event that initially kept him off the Olympic team, closed the show with a stellar set that secured what was a deemed improbable bronze medal.

It seems likely that the U.S. men will have to continue without the experienced Hamm twins, just as they did in Beijing.  While the U.S. team did just fine without the Hamms last August, it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing since then. At the 2009 American Cup, nicknamed the "Scam Cup" for its notoriously pro-American scores, German star Fabien Hambuchen beat out both current U.S. Champion David Sender and Olympian Joseph Hagerty.

However, what was a far more significant wake up call was the U.S. team finishing 6th out of six teams at the Japan Cup earlier this month. Jonathan Horton competed there, doing every event besides pommel horse and scoring well on vault and high bar, but performing poorly on floor and parallel bars. He aims to be in peak form for the U.S. Nationals, and while he has unquestionably been the top American at the last World Championships and at the 2008 Olympics, he has still not won a U.S. all-around title. Horton at his peak is the United States’ best bet for an all-around medal at this year’s World Gymnastics Championships in London, but we will see how quickly Horton can return to his Beijing form and whether he will keep the confidence that he demonstrated at the Olympics.

With the exception of Justin Spring and Kevin Tan, the entire U.S. team from Beijing does intend to compete in Dallas.

  Unlike the women, six men will be allowed to compete at the World Championships this year and there are several candidates for the team, both veterans and newcomers, which can make worthwhile contributions.  Horton should nab a spot as long as he is in decent form, but in an International Gymnast interview he actually seemed somewhat skeptical of whether he would take it because if he declined he would have more time to train and upgrade skills for next year.

Sender and Hagerty continue to be steady all-arounders, and Raj Bhavsar is looking to further maximize his potential on one of his best events, the parallel bars, by adding a skill at the Moscow World Cup that was named after him. There are also men looking to rejuvenate a weakness for theU.S. team on pommel horse, notably World PH bronze medalist Alexander Artemev (who will be competing in his first meet since Beijing), 2009 Winter Cup PH champion Tim McNeill, and 2009 NCAA PH champion Daniel Ribeiro.

Floor and vault specialist Steven Legendre has showed us plenty of ability on those pieces but his consistency leaves something to be desired.  Newcomer Danell Leyva will also look to step out of the shadows of the big boys, and his hyper-enthusiastic father and coach, to place in the all-around at the U.S. Championships and to compete at his first World Championships.

It has been nearly a year since Beijing, and yet this will be one of the first of many large steps to the 30th Olympiad in London,Great Britain.  After the 2004 Olympics, the U.S. men dropped completely off the radar and didn’t start performing well until the last part of the quadrennium.  While a poor competition at the Japan Cup is alarming, the U.S. should hopefully avoid a sudden drop in the standings come next year’s Worlds with four returning Olympians and several potentially great newcomers battling it out for spots on the team.  The question of whether the U.S. men will be able to win a third consecutive team medal at the 2012 Olympics will start to be answered at the 2009 Visa Gymnastics Championships in Dallas, beginning August 12th.

Guillermo Alvarez: Expectations Going In:  A 2007 world event finalist on floor exercise, Guillermo’s most valuable contribution to the team would be on that event and possibly as an all-arounder, as he placed 2nd AA at the 2007 U.S. Championships. Unfortunately, Guillermo appeared to peak in 2007 as opposed to ideally doing so in the Olympic year. Alvarez only placing 6th AA from the combined scores of the U.S. Championships and Olympic Trials, and his inability to contribute on pommel horse, prevented him from making the team.  This year he finished a solid 4th AA at the Winter Cup, but failed to make event finals on floor or pommel horse at the Moscow World Cup.  Alvarez has the capability of placing in the AA and contending for the U.S. title on floor.

Pros: One of the more experienced gymnasts, Alvarez has competed at seven Winter Cup Challenges, two World Championships, an Olympic Trials, and in Dallas he will be competing in his 5th U.S. Championships.Known for his clean lines and flexibility, Guillermo excels on floor with his good form and controlled landings.  With floor being his best event, he won the 2005 U.S. title there, and also placed 4th at the 2007 World Championships and 2nd at the Winter Cup Challenge this year. At the Winter Cup, Alvarez was credited with a 6.3 D-score on floor, the second highest D-score achieved on that apparatus during the competition.  Alvarez also scored a respectable 88.85 on day two of the Winter Cup, where he hit six for six routines.

Cons: It seems that there will be two types of competitors vying for spots on the world team, those who competed in Beijing that are proven commodities on the international stage, and newcomers that have potential to peak in 2012 that need to start gaining experience. Unfortunately, Guillermo doesn’t fall under either category. At the 2009 Winter Cup Challenge, Guillermo finished outside the top five on every event except floor and finished as low as 27th on high bar.  Also, his AA score on day two was over three points ahead of his score on day one, and it appears as though his consistency that almost won him a U.S. title in 2007 has faded.  Going back to why Alvarez did not even get to an alternate position for the Olympic team, his lack of another strong event did him in, as did only placing 5th (with combined results from nationals and trials) on floor.

Outlook: As far as Alvarez’s chances for making another world team are concerned, it doesn’t appear likely that he will make it this year, but one cannot count him out just yet for World Championships down the line when the team competition will be contested.

The good news for Alvarez is that fellow floor specialist Steven Legendre is quite inconsistent, but the bad news is that Legendre has the added strength of vault.  Also adding onto the bad news, Joseph Hagerty and Jonathan Horton are great on floor and they both have many other events that they could help the team on, too. While the bad news certainly outshines the good news, if Legendre were to still struggle with consistency by next year, Alvarez would be a far more reliable gymnast to hit a floor set in team finals.

Alvarez will be hard-pressed to get the selection committee for the 2012 Olympics to choose him for the team, as there will only be five members on that team (unlike the 2009, 2010, and 2011 worlds where six members will be selected for a team) and one event will be too little of a contribution to make. However, for a six-member world team he may still have a chance, but it’s hard to envision him qualifying for the individual worlds this year.  Alvarez is capable of placing 1st on floor at these championships, and would probably need to do just that for any hope of a world berth.

Alexander Artemev: Expectations Going In: In his first meet since the Beijing Olympics, Alexander Artemev is in contention to qualify for his third world team, and to prove that his newfound consistency on the pommel horse in Beijing (minus a fall in event finals while attempting a harder routine) wasn’t a fluke. Pommel horse will be Artemev’s main weapon for the world team, but will have two other pommel specialists (Tim McNeill and Daniel Ribeiro) to fend off.  An Inside Gymnastics interview of Artemev was recently published, revealing that Artemev will not do all six events and has been struggling to get in competitive shape after suffering from a fracture to his back.

Pros: Winner of the 2006 U.S. AA title, Artemev is blessed with an exceptionally lean and supple body which gives him especially great lines on his specialty event, the pommel horse. Artemev has made two world event finals on pommel, winning the bronze in 2006, and he would have medaled in Beijing on that event were it not for a fall.  Artemev did surprise many with his coolness under pressure at the Beijing Olympics, being thrown into the competition just days before and sealing the bronze medal as the last U.S. man up during team finals.  Among the three men who would call PH their best event, Artemev has far more international experience than McNeill and Ribeiro and in peak form can contend for a medal on that apparatus at the upcoming World Championships.

Cons: Artemev is a far superior international competitor than he is a national competitor, which is something he has admitted himself. Artemev fell on three out of four pommel horse routines during the Olympic selection process (U.S. Championships and Olympic Trials), which were especially costly because Artemev has no other particularly strong event. Also, Artemev has had no warm-up meet for nationals this year because of his injury, and he is skeptical of whether he will even compete in Dallas and confesses that worlds is not on the top of his mind. Having been out of competition for a year would naturally make Artemev rusty when it comes to managing competition nerves, particularly considering that he has had consistency issues at past U.S. Championships.

Outlook: Having been injured since Beijing, it will be anyone’s guess as to what form Artemev will be in, or whether he will even compete. Artemev could still be chosen to go to worlds, however, if his pommel routine is consistent and difficult enough to make the event final and have a chance at a medal. Since Artemev will not be going to Worlds as an all-arounder, the powers that be would probably be wisest to only allow Artemev to do pommel horse in qualifying, as that is his only medal opportunity and that would also allow other specialists to be able to do more routines in prelims on events they excel at.

The six men on the world team are allowed a combined 18 routines in preliminaries, meaning that if two men are chosen to do all-around in prelims there would be four spots left for specialists.  Since the top AA candidates: Hagerty, Horton, and Sender are weak on pommel, USAG could end up sending more than one pommel specialist, thus increasing Artemev’s chances further for worlds.  Considering Artemev’s injury, past consistency problems at nationals, he may not be at his Beijing form on that apparatus and thus it would be wiser to send our two other pommel specialists.

Raj Bhavsar: Expectations Going In:  Bhavsar controversially missed the 2004 Olympic team, which required the 28-year-old Houstonian to completely transform his outlook on life.  After performing well at the 2008 Olympic Trials but only being named to the team as an alternate for the second time, a bittersweet twist of fate occurred in July 2008 when good friend Paul Hamm withdrew from the Olympic team, thus allowing Raj to compete.  Bhavsar was a strong contributor to the team’s bronze medal and has proven himself to be a good competitor as of late.  Raj began his return to competition with a second place finish on parallel bars at the Moscow World Cup, and he has an outside shot at making the world team with his strong events being parallel bars and still rings.

Pros: Bhavsar demonstrated exceptional consistency last year, particularly in the Olympic Trials and at the Olympics where he didn’t miss a routine at either competition.  Bhavsar being one of the top U.S. men on rings should continue as he scored at or above 15 during both days of competition at the Moscow World Cup, which is impressive considering that at the more leniently judged Winter Cup Challenge (where Raj didn’t compete), David Sender was the only gymnast to break 15 on both days. Raj debuted his new skill on parallel bars at the Moscow World Cup, where he received a silver medal in the process with a 15.05 score.  Raj should also remain one of the top U.S. parallel bar workers, as only Hagerty, Danell Leyva, and Sho Nakamori (who will most likely withdraw from Nationals due to an ACL tear) broke 15 on that event at the Winter Cup.

Cons: Bhavsar does not have any piece of apparatus that he would be likely to make an event final on and he has little shot of going to worlds as an all-arounder, as in Beijing his high bar set was so weak the national team staff prevented him from doing that routine and having a chance at AA finals.  Bhavsar’s experience could be more of a detriment than an asset for being selected onto this team, because there are many men (notably Legendre, Leyva, McNeill, Ribeiro) that USAG would like to get out on the international floor and see how they stack up with the best of the best.  Although Raj can be a necessary contribution to a team in a team competition, having little to no chance of making an event final or being asked to do all-around provide little incentive for USAG to name him to the world team.

Outlook: Bhavsar still has the goods to contribute in a World Championship team final. With the absences of USA’s former top rings worker (Kevin Tan) and former top parallel bars worker (Justin Spring), he still can contribute much to the team on those two events where we don’t have many up-and-comers that are strong at (a notable exception being Leyva on parallel bars).  Unfortunately, Bhavsar is of no use to the team this year, unless he can prove that he is the top parallel bars worker in the nation. His placement on rings in Dallas should be inconsequential, as his world event final aspirations there are weak.

On parallel bars, however, Raj did post a high score of 15.625 in Beijing, a score that could qualify him to event finals on that apparatus and on a perfect day, allow him to medal.  His consistency, experience, and strength on two events would be a welcome asset on a six-member world team, but if Bhavsar wishes to stick it out to London (he would be 31), his contributions on those two events may be considered too little when there will only be five team members chosen to compete.

Chris Brooks :  Expectations Going In: Brooks, a relative unknown, is a senior at the University of Oklahoma. He recently qualified to the U.S. National team for the first time, having placed a solid 5th all-around at the Winter Cup Challenge, and led his OU team to a third place finish at the 2009 NCAA Championships, where he also placed 6th all-around.  Brooks is somewhat of a longshot to make a world team, but he could place at nationals on floor and high bar and did beat both Steven Legendre and David Sender at the Winter Cup Challenge.

Pros: In addition to placing 5th all-around at the Winter Cup Challenge, Brooks also finished 3rd on floor, where he marked an excellent 15.4 on day one.  A fairly tall gymnast at 5′8”, he shows off his long lines on that event and on high bar especially, where he showcases an impressive Voronin+Gienger combination.  While his best AA score of the two day Winter Cup meet was an 87.1, if one were to combine the best scores he received on each piece of apparatus he would have had an AA total of 89.5. Brooks also posted an excellent 16.25 on the vault during day two of that meet. Brooks does have two vaults in his arsenal, a handspring double front and a Kasamatsu 1 1/2 twist, which would definitely improve his world team chances if he were to complete both vaults successfully in Dallas.

Cons: Outside of NCAA, Brooks has very little experience, and will only be competing in his second U.S. Championships this year and in his first nationals as an all-arounder. Brooks’ inconsistency is also alarming, as evidenced by him scoring higher on three events (floor, pommel, and high bar) on day one and the other three events on day two of this year’s Winter Cup.  Unfortunately, his strengths on floor and high bar don’t provide anything to the team that we don’t already have, whether it is an individual worlds or a team worlds. Hagerty, Horton, and Legendre are as good, if not better, than Brooks is on floor, and a team of Hagerty, Horton, and Leyva on high bar would also suffice.  Brooks’ advantage of competing two vaults is also not especially significant, as Steven Legendre and David Sender do also intend to compete two vaults at nationals.

Outlook: Brooks stated in a NewsOK interview back in April that he thinks he can be at the Olympics if he chose to dedicate his time and effort toward that goal. His time and effort would be best spent on learning a 7.0 vault (like a handspring double front 1/2), which would increase his chances of making an event final at a world championship and such an upgrade would have the potential to contribute a few more tenths in a team competition. Brooks has form issues on both vaults; he cowboys his handspring double front and crosses his legs on his Kas 1 1/2, but overall does have better technique on the former vault.  Brooks can only make a world or Olympic team via vault and floor, the same way Steven Legendre would.  Legendre’s plans to upgrade significantly on those events for this competition and down the road mean that if Brooks has any hope of making a world/Olympic team, he must do the same.

Joseph Hagerty :  Expectations Going In: Al Trautwig played a pun on Joey Hagerty’s last name at the 2005 U.S. Championships when he commented on his inconsistent showing, "Joey Hagerty has had a very haggard day."  However, there weren’t many of those come 2008.  Hagerty went on to deliver excellent performances at the U.S. Nationals, finishing 3rd AA, and the Olympic Trials, finishing 2nd AA, en route to making the Olympic team.  Since winning a bronze medal in Beijing, Hagerty placed 1st at the 2009 Winter Cup Challenge and 3rd at the 2009 American Cup.  Hagerty’s consistency and excellence on events like floor and high bar make him a strong pick for this year’s world team.

Pros: Already an excellent gymnast on high bar, Hagerty placed first on that event at both last year’s nationals and Olympic Trials and has plans to unveil a set with a D-score of 7.0 in Dallas.  Having such a difficult set would be particularly impressive as no other U.S. man has such a difficult routine in their arsenal and no one achieved that start value at the European Championships either.  Blessed with an incredible ability to handle the pressures of competition, Hagerty hit 12 for 12 routines at this meet last year.  He also won both days of competition in the all-around at the 2009 Winter Cup Challenge, and also placed 1st on floor and parallel bars at that event.  Hagerty has shown the capability to medal in several events at these championships, including all-around, floor, parallel bars, and high bar, thus helping Hagerty’s chances to make his first world team.

Cons: Hagerty had intentions of competing the aforementioned 7.0 high bar set at the Men’s National Qualifier in early July, but failed at that endeavor, only marking a 6.3 D-score (he had a 6.5 at the Winter Cup) and having a low 8.3 E-score.  Hagerty’s chances of going to worlds as an all-arounder are sketchy at best, because if there will be no more than two all-arounders at worlds, then Jonathan Horton (4th AA in 2007) and David Sender (who beat Hagerty at last year’s Nationals and this year’s American Cup) would be more likely to do all six events in London.  Hagerty can feasibly find his way off the team if Danell Leyva, a competitive all-arounder who is strong on parallel bars and high bar (two of Hagerty’s best events), performs well at nationals. Hagerty’s case for making a floor final is also fairly weak because, while he is capable of doing so, Horton, Legendre, and Sender all have as good a chance at doing the same.

Outlook: If Hagerty maintains his consistency that he is known for, and if he were to produce that 7.0 set on high bar, in all likelihood he should make the world team.  It would be somewhat illogical to have three guys on the world team (Hagerty, Horton, Leyva) who have prowess on high bar because only two will make the event final anyway.  Hagerty would likely be a more valuable option than Leyva, given his experience, overall consistency, and ability to make a final on another event (floor).  With that said, it will be imperative that in Dallas, Hagerty hits high bar both days, floor both days, and beating Leyva in the all-around (as he did at this year’s Winter Cup) couldn’t hurt either. Regardless of whether he qualifies to the team this year, Hagerty’s strength on two crucial pieces of apparatus do make him a desirable candidate for future World Championships and the Olympic Games to come.

Jonathan Horton :  Expectations Going In: Horton has proven to be quite solid internationally, placing 4th in the AA at the 2007 World Championships and winning a high bar silver and team bronze at the 2008 Olympics, but the national championships haven’t been the kindest of competitions to the 23-year-old Houstonian.  Having never won a national AA title, Horton will no doubt be eyeing it this year, along with individual event titles on floor, rings, parallel bars, and high bar.  However, it remains to be seen what form he will be in after shaky performances this year at the Winter Cup and Japan Cup.

Pros: In 2008, Horton made several comments to the press praising Paul Hamm and his ability to compete under pressure. In Beijing, Jonathan Horton transformed into a competitor even Paul Hamm would be envious of, hitting 18 out of 18 routines. Horton has an extraordinary ability to improve significantly in a short period of time and to upgrade routines in a short period of time.  In two weeks he went from 6th AA at the 2007 U.S. Gymnastics Championships to 4th AA at the 2007 World Gymnastics Championships, and he famously completed that high bar set he won a silver medal with in Beijing with no experience training if beforehand.  Horton is a legitimate contender for a world title on high bar, and has the potential for making event finals on floor, rings, and parallel bars.  Horton also stated in an IG interview that he has upgraded several events in what he hopes will result in an all-around medal at worlds.

Cons: Horton stated in that same interview that he has actually contemplated skipping worlds, and while he seemed to come to the conclusion that he would go if asked, it does beg the question of whether he will be competition ready for this meet.  Horton had a very lackluster showing at the Winter Cup, marking a low 14.05 on rings (he only competed on that event on day two) and averaged only a 14.325 on parallel bars and a 14.15 on high bar. He fared better overall at the Japan Cup, but still struggled on floor (14.0) and parallel bars (13.55).  Pommel horse has always been a significant weak point to Horton’s gymnastics, and has not competed on a pommel set since the Olympics.

Outlook: Even if Horton is not fully back to speed in Dallas, he should be chosen to go to London because he has peaked at the World Championships/Olympic Games the last two years, and not to mention he has the strongest possibility of winning an AA medal among all the American men.  Horton has stated that he intends to compete his Olympic high bar routine in Dallas, and plans to upgrade on floor, pommel horse, and parallel bars.  Trying new skills at this competition and at worlds (assuming he qualifies and decides to go) will be very beneficial to Horton, as at these nationals he won’t need to be in Beijing form to qualify and at worlds he won’t have the added pressure of competing in a team event. Horton has every potential to win his first U.S. all-around title, but how and when he chooses to peak is entirely up to him.